Teburin Abubuwan Ciki
$15 Tiriliyan
Gibi na Kayayyakin More Rayuwa har zuwa 2040
39
Mambobin Ƙungiyar Gwanaye
23
Hasashen da aka Bincika
2035
Hangar Hasashe
1. Gabatarwa
Kayayyakin more rayuwa suna wakiltar ginshiƙin ci gaban tattalin arziki da zamantakewa, duk da haka suna fuskantar gibin kuɗi mai muhimmanci na dala tiriliyan 15 har zuwa 2040 bisa ga ƙididdiga na Dandalin Tattalin Arzikin Duniya. Hanyoyin bayar da kuɗi na gargajiya—lamuni na kananan hukumomi, gudummawa kai tsaye, da lamuni masu sauƙi—sun ƙara takura saboda tasirin siyasa, iyakokin kasafin kuɗi, da sabbin tsarin ka'idoji kamar Basel III. Annobar COVID-19 ta ƙara dagula waɗannan kalubalen, ta haifar da buƙatar gaggawa na neman sabbin hanyoyin samar da kuɗi.
Sarrafa kayan aikin da aka kunna ta hanyar blockchain (Blockchain-enabled tokenization) ya fito a matsayin wata hanya mai kawo sauyi don magance matsalolin bayar da kuɗin kayayyakin more rayuwa. Ta hanyar canza kadarorin kayayyakin more rayuwa na zahiri zuwa kayan aikin dijital (digital tokens), wannan fasaha tana ba da damar mallakar juzu'i, haɓaka ruɗar kuɗi (liquidity), da faɗaɗa damar samun damar zuba jarin da ba a iya samu a baya. Binciken ya yi amfani da binciken manufa na tushen Delphi don hasashen yadda sarrafa kayan aiki zai iya sake fasalin zuba jarin kayayyakin more rayuwa har zuwa 2035.
2. Hanyar Bincike
2.1 Aiwatar da Hanyar Delphi
Binciken ya yi amfani da cikakken bincike na Delphi mai zagaye biyu tare da gwanaye 39 na ƙasashen duniya waɗanda aka raba su zuwa ƙungiyoyi na musamman guda biyu: ƙwararrun ci gaban kayayyakin more rayuwa da kuma ƙwararrun sarrafa kayan aikin blockchain. Hanyar da aka bi ta haɗa da:
- Ƙirƙirar hasashe daban-daban guda 23 na 2035 ta hanyar cikakken bitar wallafe-wallafe
- Binciken nazarin shari'a na aiwatar da sarrafa kayan aikin da ake da su
- Tattaunawa ta tsari tare da gwanaye don tabbatar da tsarin hasashe
- Ma'auni biyu na tantancewa: yuwuwar faruwa da girman tasiri
2.2 Tsarin Ƙungiyar Gwanaye
Ƙungiyar binciken ta ƙunshi gwanaye 39 na fanni tare da daidaiton wakilci a fannin kuɗaɗen kayayyakin more rayuwa (52%) da fasahar blockchain (48%). An zaɓi mahalarta bisa ga mafi ƙarancin shekaru 10 na gogewa a masana'antar da kuma tabbataccen ƙwarewa a fanninsu. Rarrabuwar ya ba da damar yin kwatancen bincike tsakanin masu ra'ayin gargajiya na kayayyakin more rayuwa da masu ƙirƙira na fasaha.
3. Tsarin Fasaha
3.1 Aikin Sarrafa Kayan Aiki (Tokenization)
Sarrafa kayan aikin kayayyakin more rayuwa (Infrastructure tokenization) ya ƙunshi canza kadarorin zahiri zuwa kayan aikin dijital (digital tokens) waɗanda ke wakiltar mallakar juzu'i. Wakilcin lissafi na kimanta darajar kayan aikin yana biye da:
$V_t = \sum_{i=1}^n \frac{CF_i}{(1+r)^i} \times \frac{T_s}{A_t}$
Inda $V_t$ ke wakiltar darajar kayan aiki (token value), $CF_i$ yana nufin kwararar kuɗi a lokacin i, r shine ƙimar rangwame (discount rate), $T_s$ shine wadatar kayan aiki (token supply), kuma $A_t$ shine jimillar darajar kaddara (total asset value). Wannan tsarin yana ba da damar tantance daidai darajar mallakar juzu'i.
3.2 Tsarin Blockchain
Dandamalin sarrafa kayan aikin kayayyakin more rayuwa da aka tsara yana amfani da tsarin blockchain na gauraye wanda ya haɗa abubuwan blockchain na izini da na jama'a. Muhimman abubuwan da aka haɗa sun haɗa da:
- Layer na Rajistar Kaddara: Wakilcin dijital na kadarorin kayayyakin more rayuwa na zahiri
- Injin Sarrafa Kayan Aiki (Tokenization Engine): Ƙirƙirar kayan aiki da gudanarwa na tushen kwangila mai wayo (smart contract)
- Module na Bin Ka'idoji (Compliance Module): Bin ka'idoji ta atomatik da binciken KYC/AML
- Mahaɗin Kasuwa na Biyu (Secondary Market Interface): Hanyoyin ciniki da samar da ruɗar kuɗi (liquidity)
4. Sakamakon Gwaji
4.1 Binciken Yiwuwa da Tasiri
Binciken Delphi ya bayyana babban bambanci tsakanin ƙungiyoyin gwanaye game da lokutan amfani da sarrafa kayan aiki da kuma girman tasiri. Kwararrun kayayyakin more rayuwa sun yi hasashen tsayin lokaci mai tsawo amma babban tasiri a ƙarshe, yayin da ƙwararrun blockchain suka yi tsammanin aiwatarwa cikin sauri tare da matsakaicin tasiri na farko.
Muhimman Bincike:
- An gano tsarin ka'idoji a matsayin babban cikas (78% ijma'i)
- Haɗin kai na ESG ta hanyar sarrafa kayan aiki ya sami babban yuwuwar tasiri (Matsakaici: 4.2/5)
- Samun damar masu zuba jari na yau da kullun zuwa kasuwannin kayayyakin more rayuwa: Babban yuwuwar har zuwa 2030
- Haɗin kai tsakanin dandamalin sarrafa kayan aiki: Muhimmin abin nasara
4.2 Rarrabuwar Manufa
Gunguɗɗen manufa guda uku daban-daban sun fito daga binciken ƙididdiga:
- Manufar Karɓuwa Sannu a Hankali (Incremental Adoption Scenario): Haɗa kai sannu a hankali tare da tsarin kuɗi da ake da su
- Manufar Sauyi Mai Kawo Cikas (Disruptive Transformation Scenario): Sauyin tsari cikin sauri a cikin bayar da kuɗin kayayyakin more rayuwa
- Manufar Takura ta Ka'idoji (Regulatory Constrained Scenario): Ƙuntataccen karɓuwa saboda cikokin ka'idoji
5. Bincike Mai Zurfi
6. Ayyuka na Gaba
Binciken ya gano yankuna da yawa masu ban sha'awa na aikace-aikacen sarrafa kayan aikin kayayyakin more rayuwa:
6.1 Yankunan Aiwatarwa Masu Tasowa
- Lamuni na Kayayyakin More Rayuwa masu Kore (Green Infrastructure Bonds): Ayyukan kayayyakin more rayuwa masu bin ka'idojin ESG da aka sarrafa
- Asusun Kayayyakin More Rayuwa na Ketare Iyakokin Ƙasa (Cross-Border Infrastructure Funds): Tarin zuba jari na ƙasashen duniya da aka kunna ta hanyar blockchain
- Haɓaka Birane Masu Hikima (Smart City Development): Haɗaɗɗen sarrafa kayan aiki na tsarin kayayyakin more rayuwa na birane
- Kayayyakin More Rayuwa masu Jure wa Bala'o'i (Disaster-Resilient Infrastructure): Hanyoyin ba da kuɗi cikin sauri ta hanyar kayan aikin inshora da aka sarrafa
6.2 Juyin Halittar Fasaha
Ci gaba na gaba zai mai da hankali kan:
- Samfuran kimanta darajar kadarorin da aka sarrafa waɗanda aka haɓaka ta AI
- Tsaron blockchain mai jure wa Quantum don kariyar kaddara na dogon lokaci
- Ka'idojin haɗin kai tsakanin dandamolin sarrafa kayan aiki daban-daban
- Haɗin kai tare da kuɗaɗen dijital na babban banki (CBDCs)
7. Bayanan Kafa
- Zhu, J. Y., Park, T., Isola, P., & Efros, A. A. (2017). Unpaired Image-to-Image Translation using Cycle-Consistent Adversarial Networks. IEEE International Conference on Computer Vision.
- World Bank Group. (2022). Blockchain and Infrastructure Finance: Emerging Applications and Regulatory Considerations.
- Gupta, J., & Vegelin, C. (2016). Sustainable development goals and inclusive development. International Environmental Agreements, 16(3), 433-448.
- Thacker, S., Adshead, D., Fay, M., Hallegatte, S., Harvey, M., Meller, H., ... & Hall, J. W. (2019). Infrastructure for sustainable development. Nature Sustainability, 2(4), 324-331.
- Inderst, G. (2020). Infrastructure investment, private finance, and institutional investors: From concepts to implementations. Journal of Infrastructure, Policy and Development, 4(1), 1-19.
- Yescombe, E. R., & Farquharson, E. (2018). Public-private partnerships for infrastructure: Principles of policy and finance. Butterworth-Heinemann.
Gano Asali
Wannan bincike a zahiri ya fallasa rarrabuwar kawuna tsakanin masu yada bishara na blockchain da masu ra'ayin gargajiya na kayayyakin more rayuwa—wani rarrabuwa wanda zai iya haifar da nasara ko kasa yin amfani da yuwuwar sarrafa kayan aiki. Hanyar Delphi ta yi fice wajen ɗaukar wannan tashin hankali, tana bayyana cewa duk da yake duka ƙungiyoyin biyu sun yarda da yuwuwar sauyi na sarrafa kayan aiki, lokutansu da tantance haɗarin sun bambanta sosai.
Kwararar Hankali
Binciken yana ci gaba da hankali daga gano matsala (gibin kayayyakin more rayuwa na $15T) zuwa binciken mafita (sarrafa kayan aiki), amma ya yi tuntuɓe wajen haɗa gibin aminci tsakanin yuwuwar fasaha da aiwatarwa. Kamar yadda sanannen takarda na CycleGAN (Zhu et al., 2017) ta nuna game da fassarar hoto, nasarar fassarar yanki na buƙatar fahimtar duka tushen da kuma yankunan da aka yi niyya sosai—wani abu da wannan binciken ya cim ma kawai a wani ɓangare.
Ƙarfi & Kurakurai
Ƙarfi: Hanyar gwanaye biyu tana ba da haske na daɗe game da hangen nesa na ketare yanki. Hangar 2035 yadda ya kamata yana da buri amma kuma na gaskiya. Takamaiman hasashe 23 sun ƙirƙiri bayanai masu aiki maimakon hasashe maras tabbas.
Laifi Mai Muhimmanci: Binciken ya raina rashin kuyar ka'idoji. Yin kwatankwacin jinkirin karɓar REITs a cikin 1960s, muna ganin irin wannan alamu: iyawar fasaha ta wuce gona da iri fiye da kwanciyar hankali na ka'idoji. Rahoton kayayyakin more rayuwa na blockchain na Bankin Duniya na 2022 ya jaddada cewa tsarin doka yakan yi jinkiri shekaru 5-7 bayan ƙirƙirar fasaha.
Bincike Mai Aiki
Masu haɓaka kayayyakin more rayuwa yakamata su kafa ƙungiyoyin aiki na blockchain nan da nan don haɗa gibin ilimi. Dole ne a shigar da masu tsara ka'idoji yanzu, ba bayan aiwatarwa ba. Tsarin kimanta darajar lissafi yana ba da tushe mai ƙarfi ga ayyukan gwaji, amma nasara tana buƙatar magance abubuwan ɗan adam da na ka'idoji daidai da na fasaha.